The supremacy war between China and the US as discussed earlier will be driven by 5G advancement, coronavirus economy and the crude oil politics.
Today I will discuss the winners and losers in different sectors of these wars, then later the lessons for Nigeria.
1.0 The Silicon Valleys in USA and China.
The known silicon valley (technology hub of US) is located in San Francisco with GDP of $497 billion in 2018 while Shenzhen is the new silicon valley of China with a GDP of $361 billion.
The interesting story is, Shenzhen has grown from a fishing town of 20,000 residents in 1980 to 20 million residents and home to a number of prominent tech firms, such as Huawei, Tencent, drone-maker DJI and ZTE among many others that have snatched technology from USA.
Unlike San Francisco that has made a GDP growth of only 47% between 2006 and 2018, Shenzhen made a quantum leap of 335% within the same period (from $83 billion to $361 billion) with high tech contributing 33.4% of it. It is estimated that about 80% of global hardware devices are made in Shenzhen and dubbed the “Silicon Valley of Hardware” for the world.
America imports almost all their hardwares and electronics from China.
America still leads the software business with the giants like Microsoft, Apple and Google but have lost the hardware to China. Chinese firms have 40% shares of 5G Technology deployed worldwide.
The Chinese silicon valley lead.
2.0 Global Roadmap for the world.
The Belt and Silk Road Initiative is China’s global dominance venture to invest between $4 to $8 Trillion to
develop infrastructure and investment in about 70 countries in Asia, Europe and Africa. The Belt and Silk Road Initiative will physically link Asia, Europe and Africa to China through building of ports, shipping lines, roads and other critical infrastructure. In addition, the Digital Silk Road, aims to maintain a liberal economic system. This initiative is gravitating most Asian, African and European countries towards China.
America is grabbing with many local economic challenges and for now doesn’t have a global initiative at sight for its allies. They are rather spending money to maintain 174,000 active duty personnel in 140 countries and military bases.
Here China is winning convincing.
- Engineers and Scientists Dominate their Leadership Recruitment.
May be because of the Chinese economy is planned to spin around science, innovation and technology, most of the political leaders in China are engineers and scientists. The Chinese people believe that scientists and engineers, who eventually become technocrats, have a highly disciplined mind, fit for public office.
A study by Li Cheng and Lynn White shows that 8 out of 9 top Government officials in China are either Scientists or Engineers.
The former presidents Jiang Zemin (1993–2003) and Hu Jintao (2003–2013) as well as Xi Jinping (2013–present) all studied engineering. China is a living proof that Technocracy is the easiest and most potent tool to galvanize the potential of an emerging economy.
China wins in focus leadership.
4.0 international Relationship and Foreign Loans.
The International policies of China focuses on economic opportunities regardless of the system of government or human right laws of a country while US seeks to enforce its system of democracy and human rights as the bases for its bilateral relationship. Nigeria is one of the casualties of the US because of the rights of LGBT which the overwhelming majority of Nigerians are against because of religious and cultural beliefs. Nigeria lost USA favour during Obama for LGBT rights.
In addition, China provides a financial softlanding for ailing developing economies. These days, all roads lead to China instead of IMF or the world bank. The countries of the world are owing China over $1.5 Trillion, which is more than all credits owed IMF and world bank put together. According to McKinsey, from 2015 to 2017, China was the world’s second-largest source of outbound foreign direct investment and their report which analyzed 186 countries, China was found to be the largest export destination for 33 nations and the largest source of imports for 65.
In the next 10 years, the Chinese economy is projected to exceed the USA though China’s GDP (purchasing power parity, PPP) has already exceeded the US some years back. What may be left of the world Bank and IMF in the next 20 years may just be “the befitting buildings” while the world think of finding a place for the USA. As China is taking charge of the global financial influence, the power of the US is gradually receding.
China seems to be winning the global financial dominance battle.
5.0 Production of consumer Goods.
China produces about 80% of the global production of electronics devices and have also acquired dominance in consumer goods. China is supplying ventilators, coronavirus test kits, protective kits and other health products to stem Covid-19 across the globe.
In addition, America has been outsourcing most of its manufacturing capacity to China and they are now dependent on imports from China for consumer goods. This informed the reason trade deficits in America’s balance of trade with China.
Declaration of trade war and imposition of trade tariffs on China Trump will not change the direction of the economic locomotive of the world.
China seems to be welding great influence in the production of consumer goods.
6.0. Language, culture and Religious beliefs.
USA is the melting point of all tribes and countries across the globe. Almost all the major tribes of the world have their people as citizens of America unlike China. Therefore, most people across the world have emotional attachment to the US.
More than half the world’s population are Christians and moslems. Many of them dislike China because of its Communist stands. There are many missionary schools in Nigeria that America churches played a major role in running them.
The English Language we speak, our culture and beliefs are more tailored towards USA than China.
America is the winner in language, culture, religion and beliefs.
America is still leading in making of military hardwares, commercial aeroplanes and Intel computer chips which China still imports. I still doubt if these are sufficient arsenal for America to win the war.
Since Global dominance is not ordained or conferred on countries like a title, while we sip our tea over years, China and USA will remain in the battle field for dominance.
Expect the Lessons for Nigeria in Part 5.